Elections2011: You Heard It Here First... Probably

As hard as I am trying to reserve blog-space for full, edited articles, I can't resist anticipating tomorrow's election. In the morning I will go to the Adnan Menderes monument on the stump of the Golden Horn to reflect on a significant day as Turkey distances itself furthur and furthur from the threat of military coups (like the one that unfortunately killed Menderes in '61)

In the afternoon I might be trailing around poll stations in various parts of the city interviewing voters with my eternally-curious Bosniak friend Smylia. Then coffee.

After that, I suppose we'll want to know the results. I'm not a betting man, but if I was then I would certainly say 40% AKP going down as 2 terms in power inevitably sends you, 25% CHP going slightly up due to the fresh face of Kilicdaroglu, and about 9% MHP as I don't see them going far over the 10% threashhold. Out of the smaller parties I see BDP making some gains in the east over the AKP, but not substantial. Meanwhile Saadet will possibly have benefitted from the exposure of their former guru Erbakan's mass following, presented at his funeral earlier in the year. It will be interesting to see if the new quasi-social democrat HAS party, lead my Numan Kurtulmus will convince anyone in Istanbul or Ankara, as they were competing strongly, and I think unwisely, for AKP seats in those areas. Let's see how accurately my predictions fail...

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